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In Short

AI Competition Is Bigger Than the Military

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Talk of an AI 鈥渁rms race鈥 has dominated discourse on U.S.-China AI competition. From a dedicated to the of President Donald 国产视频 deputy assistant for technology policy, the analogy is everywhere.

Unfortunately, this framing is wrong.

As I , calling AI competition an 鈥渁rms race鈥 is far too winner-takes-all, implying isolated AI development between the United States and China when there are, in fact, vast interconnections and interdependencies between AI development in the two countries. Moreover, an 鈥渁rms race鈥 framing treats AI as one technology, which is certainly wrong and puts a range of AI applications into a single bucket, each of which has varying properties, sets of training data, and development timelines; they鈥檙e also built for very specific tasks. As a result, U.S. policymakers may very well damage AI development, miss out on opportunities for American AI advantage, and mishandle AI risks.

But the problems with calling U.S.-China AI competition an 鈥渁rms race鈥 go deeper still, and it鈥檚 worth zooming in on one of these issues in particular. More specifically, a hyper-focus on the military鈥攐r even blurring the lines between the military and everything else, as Rosa Brooks 鈥攅ncourages policymakers, especially those in the national security establishment, to focus almost obsessively on AI鈥檚 military applications. In turn, it comes at the expense of the United States鈥 ability to grapple with how to better develop鈥攁nd better explore the ethical issues around鈥攏on-military AI applications that have the potential to greatly influence economic power and norms around technology and human rights.

Stepping back, it鈥檚 clear that we鈥檙e in an era of great power competition. As the United States made plain in its 2018 , 鈥淭he central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term, strategic competition by what the National Security Strategy classifies as revisionist powers,鈥 the strategy reads. 鈥淚t is increasingly clear that China and Russia want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model鈥攇aining veto authority over other nations鈥 economic, diplomatic, and security decisions.鈥

Among practices like force projection and the organization of national resources to boost state power, great power competition is also by powerful states, like China and the United States, leveraging other elements of national power, like industrial productivity, science, and technology, in pursuit of their global interests. AI falls squarely in this category. By automating tasks and providing better insight into problems, AI promises to bolster national economies. Reports from the and back this point up, particularly when it comes to developing countries; they predict trillions of dollars in worldwide economic growth by 2030 because of artificial intelligence.

This could have a huge impact on great power competition. In our globally interconnected scientific and economic system, large economies lend a great deal of influence on the global stage. With the United States and China already representing the largest economies in the world, maximizing non-military uses of AI within either respective nation could lead to massive boosts in state power, amplified by China and the United States鈥 influence on global technology norms.

And yet, even with all the evidence of AI鈥檚 effect on economic power, the conversation on an AI 鈥渁rms race鈥 has centered, literally, on just that鈥攁rms. And this is nothing short of a missed opportunity.

For one, it鈥檚 in the United States鈥 own best interest to broaden the American policy focus on artificial intelligence to better include non-military applications. Beijing, while to AI and the military, demonstrates a strategic investment in artificial intelligence that extends far beyond war. China鈥檚 New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan spans discussion of AI鈥檚 role in areas as wide-ranging as industrial transformation, education, pensions, urban operations, judicial services, infrastructure maintenance, and autonomous vehicles. Other documents demonstrate the Chinese government鈥檚 ambition to play a key role in international standard-setting around artificial intelligence, too.

At the same time, China has championed 鈥攂roadly, using technology to enhance or enable authoritarian forms of governance鈥攕uch that it鈥檚 imperative for the United States to engage widely on ethical issues across a range of AI applications, setting strong democratic norms around the use of technology in society. As more countries debate the role of technology in our lives, it鈥檚 crucial that they don鈥檛 fall in line with China on this front.

In addition, AI stands to revolutionize existing institutions like health care, and as disease prediction becomes more accurate or doctor fatigue is minimized through automation, this, too, will affect economic power and aid the United States in technological competition with China. There are important questions to be answered around such issues as data governance鈥攁nother AI-related area in which Chinese policy appears than in the U.S.鈥攂ut it鈥檚 almost certain that American AI development will suffer relative to China if the U.S. government remains too focused on AI鈥檚 military applications.

To be clear, this isn鈥檛 to question the importance of work on AI and the military. There鈥檚 a definite need to better understand the implications of artificial intelligence for military capabilities both domestically and in other countries. But there鈥檚 also a disproportionate skewing of U.S. policy and attention toward AI鈥檚 military applications. Trump may have talked about AI and the economy in the recent on American AI development, but that doesn鈥檛 necessarily translate into sound policy.

Indeed, government entities like the Congressional Research Service are pumping out on artificial intelligence and the U.S. military. The same goes for research institutions, which add to a growing body of work on everything from to specific AI military plans in and . Meanwhile, op-eds and news articles are published almost weekly, it seems, on similar issues. Still others speculate wildly about the future character of conflict and war in the face of artificially intelligent machines. On the policy side, spending on AI research is in the Department of Defense.

Even though many AI applications are dual-use in that they have both civilian and military applications, it鈥檚 not enough to just have the tech exist; it still takes important organizational changes to effectively adopt and leverage AI in non-military cases. These technologies can greatly strengthen the economy and improve the well-being of lives within the United States and far beyond鈥攁nd that ought to be a larger point of focus for top U.S. policymakers.

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Justin Sherman
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AI Competition Is Bigger Than the Military