Are You My Cousin or Half-Sibling?
This article in , a collaboration among , , and .
A few years ago, Jenny participated in a study that gave her free 23andMe test results. She鈥檇 all but forgotten about it until a few weeks ago, when her cousin messaged her on Facebook: 鈥渓ol why does 23andMe think we鈥檙e half sisters?鈥
When she logged in to her 23andMe account, sure enough, the site鈥檚 鈥淩elatives鈥 feature listed her cousin as her half-sister. Earlier this year, a shocking discovery had rocked Jenny鈥檚 family, says Jenny, leaving her questioning whether 23andMe might have revealed another one. 鈥淚 played it off as a funny mistake to my cousin, but in my head I was thinking, 鈥榃ell, I already know one family secret I never saw coming, so what if this is real?鈥 鈥 She thought through what it would mean for her cousin to actually be her half-sister鈥攂asically, one of her parents sleeping with one of her aunts or uncles鈥攁nd the possible indiscretions 鈥渨ere all extremely upsetting,鈥 she says.
As consumer DNA tests have become mainstream, there have been countless stories about the decades-old family secrets they鈥檝e revealed. There鈥檚 the man who donated sperm in college and discovered, years later, that he had , the husband who discovered his daughter is actually , and a woman who was . It鈥檚 so common that when I reached out to 23andMe about this piece, a representative directed me to the company launched earlier this year for users who have discovered unexpected results through their tests.
The narrative is almost old hat at this point: Of course the DNA test uncovered some skeleton in the closet. Genetic evidence, of all things, feels irrefutable; it not only reveals affairs, but also illuminates risk for diseases, and even solves crimes. It鈥檚 science! Many consumers assume that what a DNA testing company tells them must be true, but in some cases, like Jenny鈥檚, those results might be the result of an algorithm jumping to conclusions. Those mislabelings can lead to familial strife鈥攐r at the very least, to the results鈥 recipient experiencing a few tense days of wondering about the truth.
It鈥檚 unclear how often DNA companies might miscategorize people鈥檚 relatives in test results, but judging from the consistent stream of freakouts in semi-anonymous Facebook groups and forums, it鈥檚 fairly common. After receiving results saying her aunt is actually her grandmother, a Reddit user named Melissa took to a 23andMe forum to ask how accurate the 鈥淩elatives鈥 feature really is. 鈥淪hould I be worried my whole life is a lie or is it just that it鈥檚 not completely accurate?鈥 she . Others have had false reports of listed as half-siblings (including one case in which , related through the test-taker鈥檚 mother, were listed as half-siblings but were born seven months apart鈥攁 biological impossibility). In other cases, actual were listed as cousins.
After doing some more research, Melissa decided she was 鈥90 percent鈥 sure that the results were a mistake. She鈥檇 tried other DNA test services, like Ancestry, and compared her results to other family members鈥, which led her to conclude that it was still most likely that her aunt is actually her aunt. 鈥淢aybe she is my grandmother, but I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 enough to start a family feud.鈥 To reflect the results she believes to be true, Melissa logged in to her 23andMe account and edited the relationship label in the service鈥檚 鈥淩elatives鈥 feature.
That feature is opt-in only, and, as Jenny told me, the company is 鈥渃areful to use qualifiers like 鈥榩robably鈥 and 鈥榣ikely鈥 with results, but beyond that, there鈥檚 nothing saying, for example, 鈥極h, here鈥檚 what else this could mean.鈥 鈥 After some additional research, Jenny, like Melissa, is pretty sure the algorithm was just wrong. An acquaintance who works as a genetic counselor reviewed the results, which showed that Jenny and her cousin shared 19 percent of their DNA. On average, half-siblings share about 25 percent, whereas cousins tend to share about 12.5 percent. The results also showed matches only through Jenny鈥檚 mother鈥檚 side of the family, with no matching segments on the X chromosome. So, Jenny says, unless her mother is actually also her cousin鈥檚 mother, it鈥檚 likely her cousin is not actually her half-sibling.
In an effort to be transparent with users, 23andMe has an entire page dedicated to explaining . By comparing your DNA from specific chromosomes to other users鈥, the company detects what percentage of your genome is shared. For instance, it鈥檚 a common belief that you have about 50 percent of your biological mother鈥檚 DNA and 50 percent of your father鈥檚, but even that is not quite true. Kelley Harris, a genome scientist at the University of Washington, explains that, yes, each embryo is made by taking each chromosome from the mother and the matching chromosome from the father. 鈥淭hen, the cell roughly cuts the chromosomes in half and pastes one half from each parent together, but they don鈥檛 have a super precise ruler, so sometimes it鈥檚 a little more than half from Mom, and sometimes a little less than half.鈥 It gets more complicated as relationships become more distant: 鈥淚t鈥檚 pretty hard just looking at a genetic profile to tell apart a sibling and a parent, because they both share 50 percent, and the same is true of an aunt and grandparent,鈥 says Harris.
Even geneticists with the latest available tools can鈥檛 always figure out the exact relationship between two people based only on their DNA.
Even geneticists with the latest available tools can鈥檛 always figure out the exact relationship between two people based only on their DNA. Harris told me about a study of Neanderthal DNA from an individual whom scientists believed to be the result of inbreeding. The researchers had four hypotheses for the relationships between that individual鈥檚 parents鈥攗ncle and niece, double first cousins (e.g., their dads were brothers and their moms were sisters), grandfather and granddaughter, half-siblings鈥攂ut there鈥檚 currently no way to reach a definitive conclusion. DNA tests are 鈥済ood at distinguishing, say, first cousins from people who aren鈥檛 related at all, or first cousins from second cousins,鈥 says Harris, but specific relationships are hard to glean. 鈥淓ven if you had whole sequence data or did a lot to analyze the distributions of segments, it鈥檚 just a really hard thing to say with certainty because of all the randomness that comes with kids being made.鈥
In addition to percentage of shared DNA, 23andMe relies on age to make predictions about relationships. 鈥淲hen relationships have the same pattern of DNA sharing, we use age to try to tell them apart,鈥 Katie Watson, 23andMe鈥檚 vice president of communications, told me in an email. 鈥淲e compare the self-reported ages of the users against an average calculated generation time of 10 years. If the two users are within 10 years of age, we predict that they are half-siblings. If the age gap is great[er] than 10 years, we predict they are an aunt/uncle鈥攏ephew/niece pair.鈥 That may explain why Melissa鈥檚 aunt鈥攚ho鈥檚 about nine years older than her mother鈥攚as predicted to be her grandma.
I asked Melissa why she took to Reddit to ask about her aunt. Was she hoping to find others who shared that experience, or alternate explanations? 鈥淚 wanted to understand why 23andMe was wrong since it鈥檚 one of the most accurate companies,鈥 she said. Looking at the company鈥檚 many resources its , there鈥檚 a clear effort to couch the results in nuance鈥攍ike Jenny told me, they list results as 鈥減redicted relationships鈥 and allow users to edit the relationships. But still, people put a lot of stock in those predictions and may not realize that their 鈥渄iscovery鈥 might be a fluke鈥攁nd that they鈥檙e not alone in their paranoia that they鈥檝e uncovered a family secret.
To preempt users from jumping to conclusions, perhaps the 鈥淩elatives鈥 feature could more prominently display uncertainty, especially in fringe cases like Jenny鈥檚, where her percent match with her cousin just happened to fall in the middle of the range between the average relatedness of cousins and half-siblings. Or, perhaps instead of displaying a single relationship, the results could give the possibilities: Based on the percent of relatedness, this person could be your grandparent, grandchild, aunt, uncle, niece, nephew, or half-sibling. That kind of uncertainty might also drive home just how difficult it can be to make relationship predictions, and how wide the range of possibilities really is. 鈥淚n a case like this, when science can鈥檛 tell us the answer, the only thing for scientists to do is admit that we can鈥檛 tell,鈥 says Harris.