How Does North Korea See the Future of War and Peace?
Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori.
It鈥檚 an ancient Latin phrase, from the Roman poet Horace, that鈥檚 sweet in both sound and sentiment: 鈥淚t is sweet and honorable to die for one鈥檚 country.鈥 Today, though, this notion might sound dissonant, especially when you consider the increasingly tenuous brinkmanship playing out between the United States and North Korea. Well, maybe it鈥檚聽not entirely off-key. There鈥檚 still at least one place in the world聽where this thinking is a norm: north of the 38th parallel, on the Korean peninsula.
On Monday, 国产视频鈥檚 annual Future of War conference brought together a panel of experts, including Sue Mi Terry, Suzanne DiMaggio, Suki Kim, and 国产视频鈥檚 Sharon Burke, to discuss a key issue: How does North Korea see the future of war and peace? Specifically, with an unscheduled summer summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the horizon, the panel considered the prospects of denuclearization, the futility of military engagement, and what North Korea ultimately wants鈥攁nd stands to gain鈥攆rom a diplomatic agreement.
In substantial ways, the diplomatic aims and capabilities of the United States, and most countries in the world for that matter, are easy to decipher. The same, however, can鈥檛 really be said for North Korea. In it鈥檚 largely self-imposed exile, the nation has seemingly cultivated and perfected nearly every military threat imaginable. With soldiers, reportedly numbering in the , bolstering a conventional military鈥攂uoyed by a chemical and biological weapons supply, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and fledgling nuclear capability鈥攚ar with North Korea would be nothing short of a disaster.
鈥淓ven to contemplate military conflict with North Korea is catastrophic,鈥 Terry, a former George W. Bush-era senior CIA analyst on the Korea desk, said at the conference. The possibility of mutually assured destruction as a result of war with the hermit nation isn鈥檛 lost on most international actors鈥攕ave, unsurprisingly, Trump. The U.S. president has tweeted incendiary comments about the mercurial Kim, as if a nuclear holocaust would be little more than an unusually hot Florida summer. These tweets have ranged from the 鈥斺淣orth Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?鈥濃攖o the (and still immature)鈥斺淲ill someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!鈥 Some of 国产视频 comments have even been : 鈥淣orth Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.鈥
But while Trump might have a penchant for political chest-thumping, the panelists noted how he and many people in the international community more broadly often fail to understand what war truly means to North Koreans, who鈥檝e been socialized to be prepared, always, for violent conflict.
鈥淲ar is the reason that they exist. There is nothing else,鈥 said Kim, a New York Times best-selling author, who鈥檚 conducted interviews with North Korean defectors for years. It鈥檚 also important to mention that 国产视频 childish back-and-forth with the North Korean leader comes at the detriment of many suffering North Korean citizens, who are locked in a humanitarian crisis of their supreme leader鈥檚 own making. 鈥淣orth Korea is a cult system built around war, which has a unique psychology [because of it],鈥 Kim added.
So, with all that in mind, what has finally brought North Korea to the negotiating table? And what鈥檚 necessary to make these talks successful?
鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 surprise me that they鈥檙e willing to come to the table now,鈥 said DiMaggio, who鈥檚 party to the U.S.-North Korea Track 1.5 & Track 2 diplomatic initiatives, or backchannel diplomacy, which involves non-governmental agencies and private citizens鈥攁 fall-back plan for when formal state negotiations fail. Considering the technological advancements North Koreans have achieved in terms of military power and attack capabilities, 鈥渢his is their peak negotiating capability at this moment.鈥 The nuclear deterrent, in addition to the ability to easily strike U.S. allies South Korea and Japan, has worked in their favor, providing a little leverage for getting what they want out of a deal with the United States.
鈥淪anctions relief is the main thing that they want and what they need economically,鈥 explained DiMaggio, who鈥檚 familiar with the strategic thinking of North Korean senior officials. 鈥淎t a recent meeting, they had a new request that I hadn鈥檛 heard before,鈥 she said, 鈥渨hich is, they want President Trump to reduce his rhetoric and threatening tweets.鈥
Preparation for a summit between the two leaders comes on the heels of North Korea鈥檚 participation in the 2018 Winter Olympics, hosted by South Korea. The two Koreas marched together during the opening ceremony, and to a meeting later this month, on April 27. While it鈥檚 not uncommon for the leaders of North and South Korea to correspond in person鈥攆ormer leader of North Korea Kim Jong-il met with two South Korean presidents while in office鈥攁 meeting between the North Korean dictator and a U.S. president would be historic. The New York Times 聽on Monday聽that Trump is slated to meet with Kim 鈥渋n May or early June.鈥
The success of these talks鈥攁nd what they may augur for war and peace鈥攚ill likely depend on whether the two nations can agree on what, exactly, 鈥渄enuclearization鈥 means. Trump on March 28 that, 鈥淔or years and through many administrations, everyone said that peace and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was not even a small possibility. Now there is a good chance that Kim Jong Un will do what is right for his people and for humanity. Look forward to our meeting!鈥 However, if the Trump administration is counting on the regime to hand over its weapons without any U.S. concessions鈥攕uch as, say, reducing U.S. military forces in South Korea鈥攖hen these talks may never get off the ground.
It鈥檚 hard to predict what words鈥攂arbs, even鈥攎ight be exchanged during the meeting. But for each of the panelists, one thing is certain: 鈥淥nce you commit to entering negotiation,鈥 DiMaggio said, 鈥渢he stakes are as high as they鈥檙e ever going to get.鈥