Anne-Marie Slaughter
CEO, 国产视频
In his , US President Barack Obama offered an invitation to the world鈥檚 most closed countries. 鈥淲e will extend a hand,鈥 he said, 鈥渋f you are willing to unclench your fist.鈥 This statement encapsulated the foreign policy of 鈥渆ngagement鈥 that he endorsed during his first term 鈥 an approach that, despite some shortcomings, has a lot of merit.
Obama rejected his predecessor George W. Bush鈥檚 policy of isolating 鈥渞ogue states,鈥 recognizing that America鈥檚 only hope for influencing isolated countries鈥 behavior was to engage directly with them in a bilateral context. And, as a bilateral strategy, engagement has proved to be astonishingly successful, having led to historic openings, first to Myanmar and now to Cuba, while driving progress toward an enduring .
From the beginning, however, the Obama administration has made clear that engagement is not an end in itself, but a means to various goals, both bilateral and regional.
In Myanmar, the bilateral goal was to nudge the government toward greater openness and democracy 鈥 something that has unquestionably happened. The pro-democracy leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest; her party won seats in parliament; and millions of Burmese are now studying their country鈥檚 constitution and have petitioned for amendments.
To be sure, much remains to be done. The journalist Myanmar as a 鈥渉alfway house between military and civilian rule,鈥 observing that the country鈥檚 generals have been promising to complete the transition to democracy for several years now, yet remain unwilling to allow Suu Kyi to run for President.
But this should not obscure the progress that has been made; compared to 2009, when Obama took office, Myanmar and its politics are unrecognizable. While Obama would likely acknowledge that US policy did not bring about these changes (which resulted from an internal process of recalculation by the president, General Thein Sein), the US was responsive and flexible enough to encourage them.
On the regional front, Obama hoped that an opening with Myanmar would ensure that the country did not become wholly dependent on China, while enabling the US to deepen its relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The resumption of diplomatic relations with Myanmar was a critical feature of the Obama administration鈥檚 .
As for Cuba, Obama鈥檚 primary goal seems to be to bolster respect for ordinary Cubans鈥 human rights, not to bring about regime change. While it is too soon to assess the opening鈥檚 impact in terms of reducing repression, the opportunity it presents for Cubans to engage with Americans 鈥 first family to family, then business to business 鈥 is significant.
In regional terms, Obama鈥檚 restoration of relations with Cuba merits a place in the history books alongside Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger鈥檚 opening to China. As grandiose as that claim may seem, the fact is that crossing the straits to Cuba signals a new, more open, and far more productive approach to relations with all of Latin America.
Over the last decade, US leaders鈥 efforts to establish productive frameworks for multilateral cooperation with Latin America 鈥 including attempts to and build up new forums like the 鈥 have run aground on their continued isolation of Cuba. Indeed, the 2012 Summit of the Americas in Cartagena became an exercise in America-bashing, with countries threatening to boycott the 2015 summit if Cuba was not invited.
Fortunately, the US stepped up to the challenge, and, with Cuba at the table, the summit was held . As a result, the Summit of the Americas and other regional organizations are better positioned to address regional crises, like the coming meltdown in Venezuela, and opportunities, such as the establishment of a hemispheric energy, trade, and law-enforcement infrastructure.
A nuclear deal with Iran would have similarly important implications in the Middle East and Southwest Asia 鈥 a prospect that largely explains fervent opposition to negotiations by Israel and Saudi Arabia. While the deal will stand or fall on the extent to which it pulls Iran back from the nuclear brink, it can also open the door to further bilateral negotiations on matters of common interest, from ending the war in Syria to cracking down on drug-running in Afghanistan. Already, Obama鈥檚 policy of engagement has led to the most bilateral interaction since the Iranian revolution and hostage crisis in 1979.
Whatever America鈥檚 Republican Party tries to claim during the 2016 presidential election campaign, Obama鈥檚 policy of engagement has worked, enabling the US to shape events in even the most closed countries. So why do pundits continue to debate America鈥檚 supposedly declining global influence? (Just last week, the topic made the front page of the New York Times, in that quoted a former treasury official as saying, 鈥淲e鈥檙e withdrawing from the central place we held on the international stage.鈥)
One answer is that domestic political dysfunction has severely handicapped the president in international negotiations. For example, the US Congress has blocked changes to countries鈥 quota allocations at the International Monetary Fund. And a group of 47 Republican senators wrote announcing that the next Congress may not honor whatever nuclear deal they reach with Obama.
Another source of doubt about America鈥檚 enduring influence lies in the fact that multilateral engagement is still needed, and this is always more difficult than bilateral engagement. Indeed, multilateral leadership requires not only clearer and bolder rules, but also a demonstrated willingness to bear the costs of those rules, whether by creating safe zones to uphold the or taking concrete steps to reduce 鈥 and eventually eliminate 鈥 .
Bilateral engagement will prove to be one of Obama鈥檚 most important foreign-policy legacies. But ensuring that the US can continue to lead in the twenty-first century will require a different kind of engagement. That will be a critical task for America鈥檚 next president.
This article first appeared in .