Political Fallout of Hurricane Harvey Could Begin This Year in Houston
The latest drama involving President聽聽may dominate聽the political conversation in聽every major聽America city, except one 鈥 Houston. There, where a handful of congressional races are heating up ahead of the Texas March 6 primary, there鈥檚聽another聽name on voters鈥 minds: Harvey.聽
In Texas鈥 largest city and its suburbs, incumbents and candidates alike are聽making the case to voters that they can best represent a region that continues to reel from last year鈥檚 devastating hurricane.聽
鈥淚t seems likely that this issue of the flooding will be an issue both in the primary and in the general, particularly for Congressional candidates,鈥 said Bob Stein, a Rice University political scientist.
There are at least three Houston-area U.S. House races聽where Harvey is emerging as a leading issue:聽the open seats to replace retiring聽U.S. Reps.聽, R-Humble, and聽, D-Houston, and 搁别辫耻产濒颈肠补苍听U.S. Rep.聽‘s re-election bid,聽which Democrats see as a top Texas target in 2018.
In both places, candidates are asked the same questions over and over again: How does the city get back on its feet, and how can a future disaster be prevented?聽
An聽immediate worry in Houston is whether the Texas congressional delegation can get the rest of Congress to聽allocate聽billions more dollars in relief for the region.
Congress previously passed funding to help Texans rebuild, but it was only a fraction of what officials聽say they need. The state delegation spent much of the fall lobbying for billions more.
Four months after Harvey, opposing forces continue to stymie the delegation鈥檚 efforts. Most recently, the U.S. House passed an $81 billion relief bill that was to be split between Texas and other areas impacted by hurricanes and wildfires,聽only to see the Senate refuse to take it up before the chambers exited for the holidays.聽聽
The most central U.S. House player in this effort is Culberson,聽the Republican congressman from west Houston and a nine-term incumbent.
He is Houston鈥檚 only member of the U.S. House Appropriations Committee and has earned quiet praise from some Democrats for a聽willingness to work across party lines and with members from Florida who are also fighting for disaster funding after their own hurricane damage.
鈥淗e鈥檚 at the right place and the聽right time for Houston,鈥 Cam Savage,聽Culberson鈥檚 political consultant, told The Texas Tribune. 鈥淗is position is going to afford him to have a real impact on how this legislation is created, helping people get back on their feet.鈥
But Stein sees聽signs of danger for Culberson and other Republicans in the region聽if their efforts fall short.聽
鈥淚f they don鈥檛 get that $81 billion out, I think there are consequences for the November election,鈥 Stein said, adding that voters are likely to focus on results rather than well-intended but unsuccessful efforts by members of Congress聽to provide Harvey relief.
“That raises an interesting question of whether or not there鈥檚 public support for these guys,鈥 Stein said.聽
Savage argued that the politics will take care of itself if Culberson focuses on the policy.
鈥淚t鈥檚 more important that we do [pass the funding] first and tell the story later,鈥 Savage said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 certainly the way he approaches it … We really feel that that鈥檚 a call he has to answer, so it鈥檚 hard to focus on the politics in the wake of something like that, but ultimately, the election is going to come.鈥
In many ways, it’s already here.聽
Culberson coasted to re-election聽in 2016聽last year, but聽聽also聽carried the district聽against Trump聽鈥 a development that聽prompted聽Washington chatter that the Democratic party might invest millions into ousting Culberson.
No fewer than six Democrats are vying for the nomination, and Hurricane Harvey is on their minds as well.聽Alex Triantaphyllis,聽a nonprofit executive, is one of those contenders. He charges that Culberson did not do enough during his years on Appropriations to prevent the staggering damage in the first place.聽
“I want what’s best for the district and the broader Houston community, and in this case I hope we get the funding as soon as possible, and that’s the priority we all have,” Triantaphyllis said.聽“[But Culberson] has failed to use his position as an appropriator to make sure that the federal government is doing its part to build the infrastructure we need to mitigate the flood damage here in Houston.”聽
Texas’ 2nd Congressional District,聽currently represented by Poe, leans Republican and snakes from the heart of Houston out west and north into the suburbs. Constituents there felt聽first the full impact of the storm and聽then the aftermath of聽the Army Corps of Engineers鈥 decision to release water from the Addicks and Barker reservoirs to protect the dams.聽
As a result, flooding is the pervasive issue on the campaign trail in the race to succeed Poe, which has drawn nine Republicans and five Democrats.
搁别辫耻产濒颈肠补苍听, a first-term state representative, is running in the crowded GOP primary. To differentiate himself, he is using聽his perch to speak with fluency about state and government bureaucracies on the issue of flooding.聽
鈥淚鈥檓 going to be on FEMA鈥檚 doorstep everyday鈥 if he wins his race, he told the Tribune. 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to do checks on constituents in Congressional District 2, who are still waiting for them to act and to push the paperwork through.鈥澛犅
In the neighboring 29th Congressional District, there is another primary field packed with Democrats to replace Green. State Sen.聽, who is running for the seat,聽told the Tribune that Harvey relief is a central peg in her stump speech. But she also sees it organically while campaigning.聽
“Seldom do you find a millennial that asks about something besides education and Dreamers and DACA,” she observed. But, this year, it’s different.聽聽
While block-walking in Houston recently, Garcia said a 20-something young man answered a door and said his biggest worry was whether there will be enough disaster aid farther down the coast in the Corpus Christi region.
Recent history suggests聽the political implications聽of a storm as damaging as Harvey are likely to outlast this election cycle 鈥 and even many of the region鈥檚 members of Congress.聽
When聽U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana ran for re-election in 2014, she was already one of the last Democratic senators in the South and聽facing political headwinds. Certainly, the South was turning against the party and it was an all-around miserable year for her party. But one of the other reasons聽聽for her loss that year聽was how Hurricane Katrina聽in 2005聽displaced voting blocs of African-Americans and complicated the Democrats鈥 ability to get out the vote in New Orleans.聽
Landrieu was able to win re-election in 2008, a far better year for Democrats overall.聽But all of these forces combined in 2014 to cost her Senate seat.聽
Similarly, in Houston, the aftermath of Harvey, including potentially new restrictions on rebuilding in certain areas, could move thousands of聽voters to different congressional districts.聽
Stein, the Rice professor, argues that the next聽round of redistricting and reapportionment聽in 2021聽could further scramble longtime incumbents鈥 districts.
But he also suggests that this storm was so big and the damage so staggering that politicians won’t be able to offer voters pat answers for how to address the problems ahead for Houston.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not obvious what we should do,鈥 he said.聽
This was originally published in The Texas Tribune.
Disclosure: Rice University has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors is available聽.