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At a recent event convened by the Barr Foundation, ¹ú²úÊÓƵ’s Education Funding Equity Initiative presented to state policymakers, advocates, and educators from across New England. The day focused on the risks facing state education budgets in 2027 and beyond. We built understanding of the external threats to state budgets from federal policy changes; assessed the risk factors and safeguards to education spending in each state; and drew lessons from the Great Recession to plan for future economic shocks. Insights from this work are relevant to all states and are summarized in this post.

At the event, we shared policy research, revenue and spending data, and economic forecasts for budget planning. This information was collected in a set of documents for each state, available at the links below.

To understand the risks to a state’s education budget, it is helpful to be familiar with its funding landscape. These documents cover each state’s spending levels, its general method for allocating funding to school districts, and the revenue sources that contribute to its public schools.

• Connecticut State Education Funding Overview
• Maine State Education Funding Overview
• Massachusetts State Education Funding Overview
• New Hampshire State Education Funding Overview
• Rhode Island State Education Funding Overview
• Vermont State Education Funding Overview

Recent federal policy changes—substantial cuts and rule changes to the supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP) and the Medicaid health insurance program, as well as the end of the Affordable Care Act marketplace advanced premium tax credits—pose significant threats to state budgets. States will be required to take on new costs, which could pull funding from other priorities, especially public education, which is usually the largest category of state spending other than health care. Federal cuts to health care and food assistance also threaten state budgets indirectly by affecting employment and consumer spending, and therefore state income and sales tax revenues. These documents discuss the likely impact of these policy changes on each state’s budget and economy.

• Connecticut: External Threats to the State Budget and Education Spending
• Maine: External Threats to the State Budget and Education Spending
• Massachusetts: External Threats to the State Budget and Education Spending
• New Hampshire: External Threats to the State Budget and Education Spending
• Rhode Island: External Threats to the State Budget and Education Spending
• Vermont: External Threats to the State Budget and Education Spending

Policy environments and budget circumstances vary from state to state in ways that affect spending on education. These documents discuss the specific taxes and revenues that support public schools in each state, and whether or not they are stable and protected; what other commitments may crowd out education spending; and whether the state’s budget is healthy enough to manage a downturn without making cuts to education.

• Connecticut In-State Risk Factors and Safeguards
• Maine In-State Risk Factors and Safeguards
• Massachusetts In-State Risk Factors and Safeguards
• New Hampshire In-State Risk Factors and Safeguards
• Rhode Island In-State Risk Factors and Safeguards
• Vermont In-State Risk Factors and Safeguards

The Great Recession offers some clues to how each state would fare during a future economic downturn. These documents cover when and how each state’s revenues rebounded after the recession and whether the state prioritized education spending when budgets were tight.

• Connecticut Lessons from Great Recession
• Maine Lessons from Great Recession
• Massachusetts Lessons from Great Recession
• New Hampshire Lessons from Great Recession
• Rhode Island Lessons from Great Recession
• Vermont Lessons from Great Recession