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In Short

Why Brennan鈥檚 Reform Would Hurt the CIA

Cyber Workforce
U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Michael A. Lantron

After 70 years, it鈥檚 time for some major restructuring at the CIA鈥攁t least according to its director, John Brennan, who earlier this month his plan to overhaul the agency by creating 鈥渕ission centers鈥 that would concentrate resources on specific challenges or geographic areas. Brennan also announced the formation of a new 鈥淒irectorate of Digital Innovation鈥 to lead efforts to track and implement new intelligence-gathering cyber tools.

While 鈥渃yber鈥 and 鈥渋nnovation鈥 are certainly newsier buzzwords than 鈥渞estructuring,鈥 Brennan鈥檚 to the CIA鈥檚 internal architecture are generating controversy and conversation, and rightly so. Brennan鈥檚 reform would extend the model of the Counterterrorism Center (CTC), a division already inside the CIA to the entire agency. This means analysts and operations officers will no longer work separately, but side by side in regional and thematic units. This is a major shift which overcomes a decades-old division of labor. The CTC model is not without its advantages. Analysts with deep knowledge of their enemies would be able to target operations more efficiently, and they could more easily assess the reliability of incoming information. Intelligence would circulate more freely among those working on the same topic and officers would be able to apply their talents and expertise to a wider range of tasks.

But breaking down the wall between analysts and operations officers has some even bigger drawbacks. With the CIA conducting more and more paramilitary operations, its budget has come to depend on the perceived effectiveness of these operations. With analysts and operations officers working side by side, it will become harder to find analysts willing to say that some operations are not working. Brennan dismissed this concern saying that the history of the counterterrorism center demonstrates that its analysis has remained objective.

Unfortunately, that history says otherwise. The CIA described two of the CTC鈥檚 biggest programs, drone strikes and interrogations, in terms that were simply too good to be true, misinforming policy-makers and the public.

In 2011 then senior counterterrorism adviser John Brennan stated that drone strikes had not killed civilians in over a year. The data very likely came from the CTC, 聽the unit of the CIA that conducts drone strikes and analyzes their consequences. Brennan later had to retract his statements to the press, saying that the CIA had not found credible evidence of civilian casualties, considering every male of fighting age killed in the strikes as a combatant. Had there been a cadre of analysts working separately from the operations officers, it is far more likely that Brennan鈥檚 claim would not have made it out the door.

The interrogation program offers even stronger evidence of analytic biases. For instance, between 2002 and 2007 the CIA repeatedly claimed that al-Qaeda member Abu Zubaydah provided information on terrorist suspect Jose Padilla after being subjected to the CIA鈥檚 enhanced interrogation techniques. In fact, he had provided this information while being interrogated by the FBI using rapport-building techniques, before being handed to the CIA. When questioned by the Senate, the CIA drafted an answer saying that the legal office of CTC 鈥渟imply inadvertently reported this wrong鈥, but then refused to send it. Similarly, the CIA admitted that it had 鈥渕ischaracterized the impact of the reporting [the CIA] acquired from detainees on the Karachi plots鈥 against the US Consulate. Instead, the plots had been thwarted by Pakistan鈥檚 arrest of the operatives.

The Senate鈥檚 report on the CIA鈥檚 detention and interrogation program showed that CTC officers understood that their budget and reputation depended on the interrogation program鈥檚 perceived effectiveness. In 2005 the CTC鈥檚 Deputy Director told his colleagues that 鈥渨e either get out and sell [the interrogation program], or we get hammered, which has implications beyond the media. Congress reads it, cuts our authorities.鈥 In their attempt to 鈥渟ell鈥 the program, CTC officers gathered information in a way that was hardly conducive to dispassionate analysis. 聽In 2004 the CTC Legal Office asked CTC officers for 鈥渁 list of specific plots that have been thwarted by the use of detainee reporting that we acquired following the use of enhanced techniques.鈥 That office planned to write a 鈥渆mphasizing that thousands of innocent lives have been saved as a result of our use of those techniques鈥 and warned that 鈥渢he future of the program, and the consequent saving of innocent lives, may depend substantially upon the input you provide.鈥

Warned that they would have had innocent blood on their hands had they not contributed to selling the program it is not surprising that CTC analysts succumbed to the pressure. Had there been a separation between analysts and operations officers, it would have been easier for analysts to assess whether the interrogation program really was saving thousands of innocent lives, as CTC claimed.

Ironically, the CIA more than any other agency should be aware of the perils of compromising its objectivity. Initially a weak organization competing with larger bureaucracies like the FBI and military intelligence, the CIA rose to prominence by investing in what the founding father of the CIA鈥檚 analytical branch Sherman Kent called in a collection of essays published by the CIA in 1994, .鈥 Whereas other intelligence agencies tailored their analyses to fit their bureaucratic needs, Kent argued that to be truly 鈥淐entral鈥 the CIA had to build a reputation for speaking truth to power.

In order to speak with disinterested objectivity, Kent believed that the Agency 聽had to reduce covert operations, especially paramilitary ones, to a minimum. The more the CIA engaged in covert operations, the more it developed an interest in their continuation, creating an incentive to exaggerate their effectiveness. Second, analysts and operations officers had to work separately, giving analysts the space they needed to look at the larger picture without any pressure to 鈥渟ell鈥 the Agency鈥檚 operations.

If Brennan鈥檚 suggested reform comes to pass, any pretense of disinterested objectivity in the CIA would disappear. The CIA would become a largely paramilitary agency with no separation between analysts and operators, the opposite of what Kent had envisioned.

The likely consequence would be a multiplication of the biased assessments like the ones on the drone and interrogation programs. In the long run, the CIA would lose its reputation for objectivity, its ready access to senior policy-makers and its centrality in the policy process.

More 国产视频 the Authors

Matteo Faini
Why Brennan鈥檚 Reform Would Hurt the CIA