You鈥檙e Not Scared Enough 国产视频 Sandworm
It鈥檚 a two-headed nail-biter: A coarse, unpopular former businessman without much loyalty to his party leadership refuses to concede an election, citing 鈥渋rregularities.鈥 Meanwhile, the opposing party鈥攏ot to mention all supporters of democracy鈥攁nxiously await the results, which threaten to irreversibly undermine faith in the voting process.
In this case, what鈥檚 present may be prologue. Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin鈥檚 is both natural (the margin is razor-thin) and worrisome (he hasn鈥檛 been specific about those 鈥 and even his campaign hasn鈥檛 followed up). And it鈥檚 the exact sort of behavior that might damage the legitimacy of both that election and the entire democratic process.
So imagine if the 2020 presidential election turns into a similar nail-biter鈥攁nd another coarse, unpopular former businessman raises the same questions.
Now add Russian government hackers.
That鈥檚 the scenario lurking beneath the surface of a recent Future Tense event on Andy Greenberg鈥檚 new book, Sandworm: A New Era of Cyberwar and the Hunt for the Kremlin's Most Dangerous Hackers. Based on his , the book traces the devastating impact of Sandworm, the Russian government hacking team that launched the most destructive cyber attack in history.
The NotPetya attack, which cost $10 billion in damage, affected a breathtaking range of industries across the globe鈥攊ncluding Maersk, the world鈥檚 largest shipping company. When I first read Greenberg鈥檚 article, it was one of those moments where the scale is so huge that it actually overwhelmed my fear receptors. It鈥檚 not me鈥攊t鈥檚 shipping companies. It鈥檚 terrible鈥攂ut incomprehensible. Supplies of medicine going bad, computer monitors going black, black, black, just like dystopia porn from Hollywood. Can that really happen? (It just did). But that鈥檚 literally too scary. Can I think about something else now?
Actually, I did think, 鈥淭his is the same gang that tried to hack the 2016 U.S. election with Facebook ads and other shenanigans. And now they鈥檝e created a weapon that can take down the world鈥檚 biggest shipping company, leaving their IT team powerless to stop it. How is the Broward County Election Board gonna prepare for that?!鈥
Greenberg鈥檚 narrative shows just how prepared Maersk was. The virus was able to take down terminals across the company, blowing through even planned redundancies and backup systems. The company got 鈥渓ucky鈥 when it finally tracked down a remote computer in Ghana that had been off-grid during the attack, thanks to a fortuitously-timed power outage.
As for how devastating an attack like that could be on society, Greenberg described during the event a previous Russian attack on Ukrainian systems鈥攆rom the perspective of an ordinary citizen of Kiev who couldn鈥檛 get money from an ATM, couldn鈥檛 load up the fare on his subway card, and couldn鈥檛 use his credit card at the grocery store.
鈥淭here was a disorentiation,鈥 Greenberg said, 鈥渓ike he鈥檇 lost a limb of his body. He described it as an end-of-the-world movie scenario.鈥
The attack, noted Greenberg and fellow panelist Peter Singer, a senior strategist at 国产视频, illustrated the sheer inadequacy of any international system of accountability. Greenberg pointed out that well before NotPetya, previous Russian attacks on Ukraine had gone largely unpunished鈥攅ven as the Obama administration broadcast warnings and called out cyber-attackers in other contexts.
鈥淭he first generation of cybersecurity thought we could build up global norms to scare people away from attacking on scale or attacking certain kinds of targets [脿 la the Geneva Convention],鈥 said Singer. But that didn鈥檛 come to pass. The story of NotPetya, observed Singer, was 鈥渘ot that they did it, but that they got away with it.鈥
Both Greenberg and Singer analogized it to the Spanish Civil War, where Germany was able to both test out military tactics and affirm the reluctance of international players to rein it in. How鈥檇 that turn out?
As for U.S. election systems, there鈥檚 good news: The technology and responsibility are distributed to myriad states, counties, and election boards, with multiple companies and networks responsible for handling all that data. While this makes it extremely difficult to scale an attack, there鈥檚 also bad news: There are a lot of weak points in the system, and if one fails, a politician could easily point to it as, well, an 鈥渋rregularity鈥濃攖hus throwing the system in doubt in the eyes of his supporters.
Furthermore, said Singer and Greenberg, even if there existed a system of international norms and accountability, this kind of attack is available to non-state actors鈥攅verything from terrorist groups to some random kid with a laptop just looking to make trouble.
So, sure, pay attention to the polls. Be a fan of democracy and hope for a high voter turnout. But remember, somewhere out there, someone might be trying to hack our elections鈥攎aybe for profit, maybe because they prefer one candidate over another, or maybe just to screw with democracy. That kind of mindset is genuinely scary when you confront it, and we鈥檒l need more than sophisticated tech to confront it. Here鈥檚 hoping we build a system of ideological resilience鈥攐ne that can do the work an international set of norms has yet to accomplish.