The Death of Cambodian Democracy
Cambodia鈥檚 opposition leader, Kem Sokha, was shortly after midnight on Sunday, accused of conspiring with the United States to overthrow the government. Other opposition members may be next in line, as wild conspiracy theories swirl in government-aligned news sources, claiming that civic groups are partnering with the opposition and foreign powers to stage a 鈥.鈥
Prior to Kem Sokha鈥檚 arrest, Cambodia was already in the midst of a major crackdown on independent media and critical NGOs, as pivotal elections loom next year. In the span of a few short weeks, the government has , of one of the most prominent independent newspapers in the country, and of a longstanding democracy support NGO.
These tactics and goals aren鈥檛 altogether new. Prime Minister Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge commander, has ruled the country with an iron fist for over three decades and is a at employing purges and threats to bully his critics and hamstring the opposition. But the rapidity with which the most recent crackdown has ensued makes it unprecedented. The developments represent something different, and more sinister, than before鈥攁nd so tolls, it seems, Cambodian democracy鈥檚 death knell.
The latest round of attacks has taken down institutions that had weathered repeated government crackdowns for years. The National Democratic Institute, a U.S.-backed democracy assistance organization, had been for 25 years, working with both the ruling party and opposition, before the government abruptly ordered it, on Aug. 23, to , giving the organization鈥檚 foreign staff one week to pack up and leave Cambodia.
Next up was The Cambodia Daily. The prominent newspaper, , was on Sept. 4 after it failed to pay an arbitrarily levied $6.3 million tax bill. It had been in publication since the early 1990s, and, along with a number of radio stations broadcasting programs from Radio Free Asia, Voice of America, and Voice of Democracy, was one of the last spaces for critical, independent coverage.
Kem Sokha, himself, had previously evaded arrest in mid-2016, following another set of bogus charges driven by leaked tapped phone conversations. He spent more than six months in the opposition party headquarters in Phnom Penh before in December (after Hun Sen agreed to back down). This time, however, he wasn鈥檛 so lucky, and he now sits in prison on trumped-up that could keep him in jail for decades.
So why is this happening now? The government鈥檚 dramatic new moves come in the heat of a shifting electoral landscape, one in which Hun Sen has reason to be worried about his prospects in the next general election, scheduled for July 2018. Despite years of strongman rule, Cambodia still has formal elections, and in 2013, the ruling Cambodian People鈥檚 Party (CPP) suffered a to the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), which precipitated months of street protests. In local elections, which took place this past June, the opposition again made .
That appears to have been too much for Hun Sen to take. And so in its efforts to ensure that the 2018 contest won鈥檛 be fought on a fair playing field, the CPP government has now moved into uncharted territory.
Shifting geopolitics is another significant part of the story. For years following the devastation wrought by the brutal Khmer Rouge regime and subsequent civil war, Cambodia has been reliant on international aid. Since most of this aid came from countries, especially those in the West, with an interest in seeing Cambodia develop strong democratic institutions, the government was generally careful to avoid going too far in its periodic crackdowns.
But now, with China increasingly acting as the main foreign power investing in Cambodia and backing its government, democracy is no longer a priority, and Hun Sen has more space to maneuver. What鈥檚 more, it doesn鈥檛 help that that the Trump administration seems to , especially in a country like Cambodia, or that the wider international community remained largely silent over the past two years as the .
The government鈥檚 next move could be the total dissolution of the opposition. Earlier this year, the ruling party to the Law on Political Parties, which allow for parties to be dissolved for violating a slew of vaguely worded prohibitions, including having members with criminal convictions. The amendments were initially targeted at the CNRP鈥檚 exiled former president, Sam Rainsy, who was from the party following their passage, along with from the opposition who had been similarly targeted with politically motivated charges.
Now, thanks to these legislative changes, Kem Sokha鈥檚 potential conviction could be used to shut down Cambodia鈥檚 only viable opposition party. The CNRP, backed into a corner and concerned for the safety of its top leadership, has a new party president, setting up a dangerous game of chicken that could render already dubious upcoming elections effectively meaningless.
With a legal framework designed as a bludgeon for the ruling party to wield and with little stopping the government from continuing its crackdown, it appears that Hun Sen has finally given up on even the pretense of a democratic system.
鈥淒escent Into Outright Dictatorship鈥 was the of the final issue of The Cambodia Daily, and it鈥檚 an apt one. Cambodian democracy鈥攁lways more of an aspiration than a reality鈥攊s effectively dead, trampled by a government that seems bent on retaining control, no matter the cost.