The ‘Worst Deal Ever Negotiated’ Is Still Untouched
鈥淭he worst deal ever negotiated.鈥
Those , lobbed at former President Barack Obama鈥檚 nuclear deal with Iran, have echoed since the beginning of Donald 国产视频 presidential campaign. And yet, since taking office, the Iran deal has become something of an itch that Trump just can鈥檛 scratch.
World leaders recently gathered in New York for the UN General Assembly (UNGA). As expected, Trump didn鈥檛 hold back on his criticism of the deal, calling it an 鈥溾 and saying that the world hadn鈥檛 鈥渉eard the last of it,鈥 with 鈥渋t,鈥 presumably, being the alleged problems with the deal. Yet, bombastic comments aside, Trump has made no progress in dismantling the deal, and he also seems to be failing to curb Iran鈥檚 influence in the region; the growing frustration within the administration over this dilemma is apparent.
Here, it鈥檚 important to note that in this latest round of criticism, Trump didn鈥檛 specifically state that he intends to 鈥渢ear up鈥 the deal, as he had previously promised to do. Moreover, he didn鈥檛 accuse Iran of breaching any nuclear weapons constraints. He, instead, focused on Iran鈥檚 poor human rights record, its financing of terrorism, its development of ballistic missile capabilities, and its meddling in the Middle East. (True to form, he did call Iran a 鈥溾 regime.)
For all of that, though, Trump has seemed consistently reluctant to actually dismantle the deal. And for good reason: It鈥檚 a key safeguard against Iran鈥檚 ability to produce nuclear weapons. As such, it鈥檇 be erratic, not to mention potentially dangerous, to jettison the deal outright.
The timing of 国产视频 address is crucial, given that it comes right before he鈥檇 need to certify that Iran is staying true to its obligations. (Trump has previously certified Iran on two separate occasions.) More precisely, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act () of 2015 requires the United States to certify by Oct. 15 of this year that the country is completely carrying out the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which is the formal name for the Iran deal.
Trump has expressed annoyance with his national security team, specifically with , for not offering what he deems a compelling case that Iran isn鈥檛 fulfilling its obligations to the JCPOA. Yet, unfortunately for the president, the International Atomic Energy Agency to suggest that Iran is failing to fulfill its end of the deal.
Although Trump disparages the deal with a seasonal regularity, his security officials are that it鈥檚 currently in the United States鈥 best interest to keep the JCPOA as it is. Most recently,聽Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Tuesday that,聽鈥渁bsent indications to the contrary, [the Iran nuclear deal] is something that the president should consider staying with.鈥澛燗nd indeed, there鈥檚 a strong argument to be made about the negative ramifications of dismantling the deal. Abandoning it would, for one, eliminate one of America鈥檚 primary constraints on Iran and its ability to produce nuclear weapons. Its removal also may give hardliners more clout to move aggressively and provide the region a reason to lose confidence in the United States鈥 ability to honor future deals. Plus, if the Trump administration walked away from the deal, it鈥檚 unclear whether key allies would follow suit, as some diplomats have staunchly begun to it.
Likewise, gutting the Iran deal completely would run counter to 国产视频 own stated foreign policy aims in the Middle East, which include preventing Iran from making gains in the region and scaling back its geopolitical involvement. Much debate on Iran centers around fears that it intends to expand its regional influence via the Iranian-influenced 鈥淪hia Crescent鈥 that stretches from Lebanon to Saudi Arabia. This collection of states, which consists of Shia majorities or sizable Shia minorities, serves as a sort of launch pad from which Iran can project its power in the region effectively and efficiently. Its territorial gains in Syria have led to the construction of bases throughout the country, . For the United States to disrupt Iran鈥檚 operations in the region, it must, at a minimum, maintain its involvement in the Middle East.
Let鈥檚 remember, too, why the Obama administration struck the deal in the first place: to address the issue of nonproliferation. The Obama administration knew that including other items in the deal鈥攖aking aim at financing terrorism and ballistic missiles鈥攚ould鈥檝e dramatically decreased the possibility of reaching a deal. What Trump seems to want is more of a grand bargain deal that includes all aspects of Iranian threats to U.S. interests in the region. For now, the administration should explore to curb Iran鈥檚 influence, while keeping the deal intact.
In all likelihood, there will be an incessant flow of anti-Iran rhetoric coming out of the White House for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, Trump is able to do very little to change the current circumstances around the Iran deal. Looking ahead, it鈥檚 in his administration鈥檚 best interest to focus on one regional policy issue at a time, whether that be the Iran deal or any other array of conflicts in the Middle East. The United States has spread itself thin across the region鈥攆rom soothing the to fighting ISIS to attempting to counter Bashar Hafez al-Assad鈥檚 regime, among many other critical issues. With less than two weeks to go before it must certify whether or not Iran is in compliance with the nuclear deal, the Trump administration must decide where the Iran deal falls on that list of regional priorities.